Russell 2000 At Bottom End Of Range – Likely Gives Way

Did U.S. small-caps lead or lag in the past four months?  Depends on the timeframe. Post-November 8 election through the March 1 all-time high, the Russell 2000 small cap index rallied 18.4 percent.  Year-to-date through that record high, it tacked … Continued

Flatter Yield Curve Makes Fed’s Job Harder – Rally In Financials In Limbo

Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture.  This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 194.4k, down 104.1k. Equities up. Gold up.  The US dollar index down.  Ten-year Treasury yields down.  This is how markets reacted to Wednesday’s FOMC … Continued

Dollar Index – Likely Focused On Yield Curve – Acts Confused

The US dollar index (cash) acts confused. Later today, it is all but certain that the Fed announces a hike in the fed funds rate.  This would be the third increase since December 2015, when for the first time since … Continued

WTI Crude Resolves 12-Week Consolidation With Breakdown – Non-Commercials’ Next Move Crucial

Spot West Texas Intermediate crude had a lousy last week, collapsing 9.1 percent as well as losing both 50- and 200-day moving averages. On a closing basis, it also lost the rising trend line from the lows of February last … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 7, 2017. 10-year note: The Janet Yellen-led Fed – and the one led by her predecessor Ben Bernanke – believe in the wealth effect.  Since the financial crisis, anytime equities came … Continued

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