Mid- And Small-Caps Lag Large-Caps From Oct ’22 Lows, But Neck And Neck From ’23 Lows; Mid-Caps At Crucial Juncture Technically

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With the 4Q earnings season nearly over, large-caps were in the black last year, while mid- and small-caps were in the red. The latter two have underperformed the large-caps from Oct ’22 lows but are running neck and neck from … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.1k, down 31.5k. In the futures market, fed funds traders have now reduced rates outlook to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. This is right … Continued

‘Risk-On’ Rally In S&P 500, Or Nasdaq 100, Without Willingness To Take On Leverage Probably Unsustainable

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

January saw margin debt only inch up, even as the S&P 500 rallied 1.6 percent. This divergence, should it continue in the months ahead, could end up helping equity bears more than the bulls. The S&P 500 opened 2024 with … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 760.5k, down 67.9k. FOMC minutes for the January 30-31 meeting are due out Wednesday. The policy-making body stood pat at that meeting, with the … Continued

Way Overbought US Equity Indices Used January’s CPI Report As Excuse To Weaken

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

US equities sold off Tuesday – apparently in reaction to higher-than-expected CPI readings for January. The consensus may have expected better prints, but the fact remains that last month’s y/y change was better than December’s. The disinflation trend is intact. … Continued

4Q Small-Cap Earnings Coming In Weak, Sell-Side Expects Blockbuster 2024, But Russell 2000 Fails To Agree

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-cap earnings are coming in much weaker than expected when these companies began reporting the fourth quarter – or even when the December quarter began. Small-business optimism remains subdued. Yet, the sell-side expects blockbuster earnings this year. The Russell 2000 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 828.5k, down 30.6k. For nearly a month now, the 10-year treasury yield has struggled at 4.2 percent. This week, it rallied 15 basis points … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 859k, up 74.3k. January produced a blockbuster payrolls report. The economy added 353,000 non-farm jobs and the prior months were revised higher. This only … Continued