CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 21, 2017. 10-year note: Are we in for a March shock? Post-FOMC minutes on Wednesday, fed funds futures were pricing in a 32-percent chance of a rate hike in the March … Continued

Record U.S. Crude Inventory + Non-Commercials’ Record WTI Net Longs – Bulls Face Crude Reality

Ten and counting.  That is the number of weeks spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($53.78) has now gone flat. Oil bulls hope this is consolidation before another leg higher.  Since oil bottomed at $26.05 on February 11 last year, it … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 14, 2017. 10-year note: On February 15, 10-year yields hit 2.52 percent before retreating.  That high tagged a declining trend line from December 15 when yields hit 2.62 percent intraday.  This … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 7, 2017. 10-year note: On January 26, 10-year yields began dropping after hitting 2.56 percent, lower than the 2.62 percent on December 15 – hence lower highs.  In the meantime, they … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 31, 2017. 10-year note: During his presidential campaign, President Donald Trump openly criticized the Fed’s easy monetary policy.  Indeed, since June 2006, there have only been two 25-basis-point increases in the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 24, 2017. 10-year note: Yields (cash) rose 14 basis points for the week to 2.48 percent, having risen as high as 2.56 percent intra-day Thursday.  Earlier, they bottomed at 2.31 percent … Continued

Sideways For Weeks, Crude Oil Ceases To Respond To +ve News

Over the weekend came news that OPEC and non-OPEC producers had taken 1.5 million barrels per day out of the market.  They had earlier agreed to output cut of 1.8 mb/d in the first six months this year. OPEC first … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2017. 10-year note: Bond bears near term have as good a chance as any to push long bonds still lower.  TLT, the iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF, peaked this Tuesday, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2017. 10-year note: This is what makes a market.  Two different bond luminaries looking at the same asset and coming up with two different analyses/conclusions. The issue in question is … Continued

Amidst Persistent Downward Revision In S&P 500 Op Earnings, 2018 Starts Out At > $147!

The S&P 500 large cap index trades at 21.3 times operating earnings or 17.4 times or 15.5 times.  Take your pick.  The first one uses trailing 12-month earnings, and the latter two forward. In Chart 1, the red bars are … Continued

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