CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 41.3k, down 23.2k. After dropping last week out of a five-month, 2.62 percent-2.31 percent range, 10-year Treasury yields (2.24 percent) proceeded to drop to … Continued

Trump Dangles Carrot In Front Of Yellen – Financials Likely Casualty

Last Wednesday, speaking to the Wall Street Journal President Trump said that the dollar was getting too strong and that it would eventually hurt the U.S. economy.  In the past, he, as well as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, have made … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 64.5k, up 8.8k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.23 percent) are breaking down. Shortly after post-election backup in yields last November, the 10-year began to so … Continued

TLT Repelled At Resistance – Likely Headed Lower Near Term

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity.  Sort of.  Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating.  This resistance goes back to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 55.8k, down 13.9k. Post-FOMC minutes Wednesday, the S&P 500 large cap index reversed hard, shedding 1.1 percent between 2 pm and 3:30 pm.  This … Continued

Major Equity Indices Nearing Support – 10-Year Yields Probably Hold Key

Several asset classes are at crucial juncture. Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate crude rallied to $51.88 before closing at $51.15, up 0.2 percent (Chart 1).  The session produced a long-legged doji, took out now-slightly-declining 50-day moving average intraday but closed the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 69.4k, down 30.9k. Fed officials are beginning to jawbone – again. Tuesday, Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, said he forecasts two more hikes this year.  … Continued

Interesting Dynamics Between Non-Commercials’ Eurodollar And 10-Year-Note Futures

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias.  In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher.  Are they right? Since … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued

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