CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued

Flatter Yield Curve Makes Fed’s Job Harder – Rally In Financials In Limbo

Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture.  This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 194.4k, down 104.1k. Equities up. Gold up.  The US dollar index down.  Ten-year Treasury yields down.  This is how markets reacted to Wednesday’s FOMC … Continued

Dollar Index – Likely Focused On Yield Curve – Acts Confused

The US dollar index (cash) acts confused. Later today, it is all but certain that the Fed announces a hike in the fed funds rate.  This would be the third increase since December 2015, when for the first time since … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 7, 2017. 10-year note: The Janet Yellen-led Fed – and the one led by her predecessor Ben Bernanke – believe in the wealth effect.  Since the financial crisis, anytime equities came … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 28, 2017. 10-year note: By Friday last week, fed funds futures were putting the odds of a rate hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting (March 14-15) at 34 percent.  By Monday, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 21, 2017. 10-year note: Are we in for a March shock? Post-FOMC minutes on Wednesday, fed funds futures were pricing in a 32-percent chance of a rate hike in the March … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 14, 2017. 10-year note: On February 15, 10-year yields hit 2.52 percent before retreating.  That high tagged a declining trend line from December 15 when yields hit 2.62 percent intraday.  This … Continued

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