Russell 2000 Once Again Bounces Off Support, Likely Rallies Further – Medium-Term Outlook Sour

The Russell 2000 small cap index once again sits right underneath the upper bound of a five-month range. From the 4th through the 20th in November last year, the Russell 2000 jumped 16.5 percent to 1247.2, rallying every single session … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 41.3k, down 23.2k. After dropping last week out of a five-month, 2.62 percent-2.31 percent range, 10-year Treasury yields (2.24 percent) proceeded to drop to … Continued

Relief Rally Underway, Even As VIX In Process Of Forming Golden Cross

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

On major U.S. equity indices, buyers stepped up to the plate just where they needed to.  Can they sustain it? From peak to trough, after reaching an all-time high on March 1 (2400.98), the S&P 500 large cap index shed … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 64.5k, up 8.8k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.23 percent) are breaking down. Shortly after post-election backup in yields last November, the 10-year began to so … Continued

TLT Repelled At Resistance – Likely Headed Lower Near Term

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity.  Sort of.  Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating.  This resistance goes back to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 55.8k, down 13.9k. Post-FOMC minutes Wednesday, the S&P 500 large cap index reversed hard, shedding 1.1 percent between 2 pm and 3:30 pm.  This … Continued

Small Caps Rally Back To Range Resistance – Shorts Can Get Active/Bulls Can Get Tempted To Sell

Down 5.6 percent from intraday peak to trough in 19 sessions, and then up 4.1 percent from low to high in five.  The Russell 2000 small cap index continues to play ping pong between range support and resistance. Last Friday, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 69.4k, down 30.9k. Fed officials are beginning to jawbone – again. Tuesday, Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, said he forecasts two more hikes this year.  … Continued

Interesting Dynamics Between Non-Commercials’ Eurodollar And 10-Year-Note Futures

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias.  In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher.  Are they right? Since … Continued

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