Stocks have done very well this month, pushing the major equity indices into overbought territory. Several other metrics are extended but not extreme. This should give the bulls an opportunity to continue to ride the momentum, but can they pull … Continued
Kudos to equity bulls for having cashed in on last Tuesday’s CPI report, which was just a tad better than expected. With three up weeks in a row, the S&P 500 – as overbought as it is on the daily … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 14, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 661.8k, up 57.3k. After six months of uninterrupted rally, the 10-year treasury yield is on pace to a down month. So far this month, … Continued
October’s CPI report showed continued disinflation since peaking last year at four-decade highs. Concurrently, Walmart, which commands a wide consumer reach with nearly $600 billion in annual sales, rather ominously commented that the company was more cautious than it was … Continued
Small-caps continue to act tentative. It is a group of stocks with the most exposure to the domestic economy, and their performance runs counter to the nearly-consensus view that the economy will do just fine next year. Oddly enough, small-cap … Continued
It is probable the 10-year T-yield has peaked at five percent. In this scenario, a sustained move lower will put shorts, who were heavily betting on higher rates, under pressure to cover. Two weeks ago, the 10-year treasury yield met … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 31, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 627.7k, up 64.3k. The 10-year treasury yield has peaked. For three consecutive sessions last month, it tried to unsuccessfully take out five percent, with … Continued
Both the S&P 500 and VIX closed lower last week. This occurred even as the major US equity indices are at/near decent/major support. Right here and now, odds favor the bulls than the bears. Last week, both the VIX index … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 24, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 563.4k, down 147.4k. The FOMC meets next week. After this, there is only one scheduled meeting left this year – on December 12-13. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 710.7k, down 2.2k. Yet another week and yet another intraday high! Thursday, the 10-year treasury yield reached the highest since July 2007 – a … Continued