CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 31, 2017. 10-year note: During his presidential campaign, President Donald Trump openly criticized the Fed’s easy monetary policy.  Indeed, since June 2006, there have only been two 25-basis-point increases in the … Continued

Pie-In-Sky Optimism Risks Hard-Landing

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Regardless whether or not it is solely related to the outcome of the November 8 U.S. presidential election, several data points have seen an uptick since. Stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 large cap index up nearly six percent between … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 24, 2017. 10-year note: Yields (cash) rose 14 basis points for the week to 2.48 percent, having risen as high as 2.56 percent intra-day Thursday.  Earlier, they bottomed at 2.31 percent … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2017. 10-year note: Bond bears near term have as good a chance as any to push long bonds still lower.  TLT, the iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF, peaked this Tuesday, … Continued

Amidst Signs Of Rally Fatigue, Dollar Gets Jawboned

There is a new entrant in the list of things dollar bulls are having to grapple with.  It is the Donald. Bulls were already locking horns with overbought technicals and non-commercial futures traders who persistently refused to jump on the … Continued

Thus Far In 2017, U.S. Stocks Risk-On Or Risk-Off?

Two thousand and seventeen has gotten off to a good start.  In the first nine sessions of the year, the S&P 500 large cap index is up 1.6 percent.  For the most part, the rally is driven by offensive sectors/industries, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2017. 10-year note: This is what makes a market.  Two different bond luminaries looking at the same asset and coming up with two different analyses/conclusions. The issue in question is … Continued

December Payroll Report Ignites Hopes Of Wage Acceleration – How Justified?

posted in: Economy | 0

The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent.  December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued

Amidst Persistent Downward Revision In S&P 500 Op Earnings, 2018 Starts Out At > $147!

The S&P 500 large cap index trades at 21.3 times operating earnings or 17.4 times or 15.5 times.  Take your pick.  The first one uses trailing 12-month earnings, and the latter two forward. In Chart 1, the red bars are … Continued

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