CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high.  Ten-year yields … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2016. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has had a nasty drop since it reached a historic high of $141.91 on July 8 this year.  Two … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012.  In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued

ITB Range-Bound Action Continues Amid Conflicting Housing Signals

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. sales of existing homes increased 0.7 percent month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units.  This was the highest since 5.79 million in February 2007 (Chart 1).  Sales had been flat for over a … Continued

Decent Odds Jan Next Year Will Be Like Jan This Year

posted in: Currency, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Notice the plateauing to slightly rising red line in Chart 1? In the middle of January this year, 2017 operating earnings estimates of S&P 500 companies were started out at $141.11.  At the time, 2016 estimates were just north of … Continued

Non-Commercials Deftly Riding Small-Cap Momentum – Watch Out When They Turn Tail

Back in the week ended July 5 this year, non-commercials enthusiastically held 315,963 net longs in gold futures.  That was an all-time high.  These traders had been aggressively building positions since the week ended December 1 last year, when net … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued

Fed May Have Missed Opportunity – Again!

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

In late 2014/early 2015, U.S. economic data began to either stall or decelerate. Take capacity utilization, for instance.  It peaked at 78.9 percent in November 2014, peaking before tagging 80 percent (Chart 1).  The Fed funds rate was still near … Continued

OPEC Wants Higher Price But Not High Enough To Aid U.S. Shale

Over the weekend, non-OPEC producers agreed to cut crude output by 558,000 barrels per day, of which Russia would reduce by 300,000 b/d.  This followed OPEC’s November 30 decision to cut output by 1.2 million b/d. The deal goes into … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2016. 10-year note: Regardless how Mr. Mario Draghi, ECB president, describes the €20-billion/month reduction in asset purchases beginning next March until December, it looks like tapering, walks like tapering, and … Continued

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