CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 7, 2017. 10-year note: On January 26, 10-year yields began dropping after hitting 2.56 percent, lower than the 2.62 percent on December 15 – hence lower highs.  In the meantime, they … Continued

Recent Uptick In Unit Labor Costs Unlikely To Sustain

posted in: Economy | 0

The latest productivity report had observers buzzing more about unit labor costs than output per hour. In 4Q16, unit labor costs jumped at an annual rate of 1.68 percent, up from 0.18 percent in 3Q16. This comes in the wake … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 31, 2017. 10-year note: During his presidential campaign, President Donald Trump openly criticized the Fed’s easy monetary policy.  Indeed, since June 2006, there have only been two 25-basis-point increases in the … Continued

Pie-In-Sky Optimism Risks Hard-Landing

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Regardless whether or not it is solely related to the outcome of the November 8 U.S. presidential election, several data points have seen an uptick since. Stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 large cap index up nearly six percent between … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 24, 2017. 10-year note: Yields (cash) rose 14 basis points for the week to 2.48 percent, having risen as high as 2.56 percent intra-day Thursday.  Earlier, they bottomed at 2.31 percent … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2017. 10-year note: Bond bears near term have as good a chance as any to push long bonds still lower.  TLT, the iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF, peaked this Tuesday, … Continued

Amidst Signs Of Rally Fatigue, Dollar Gets Jawboned

There is a new entrant in the list of things dollar bulls are having to grapple with.  It is the Donald. Bulls were already locking horns with overbought technicals and non-commercial futures traders who persistently refused to jump on the … Continued

Thus Far In 2017, U.S. Stocks Risk-On Or Risk-Off?

Two thousand and seventeen has gotten off to a good start.  In the first nine sessions of the year, the S&P 500 large cap index is up 1.6 percent.  For the most part, the rally is driven by offensive sectors/industries, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2017. 10-year note: This is what makes a market.  Two different bond luminaries looking at the same asset and coming up with two different analyses/conclusions. The issue in question is … Continued

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