In Need To Digest Post-Election Optimism, S&P 500 Faces Dual Resistance

Since the U.S. presidential election through the intra-day high last Thursday, 10-year T-yields jumped 63 basis points, and two-year yields 27 basis points.  From the July 6 all-time low of 1.34 percent, 10-year yields surged 115 basis points. Riding on … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2016. 10-year note: From the July 6 (this year) all-time low of 1.34 percent to the Thursday high of 2.49 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 115 basis point in … Continued

Corporate Profits Snap 5 Straight Quarters Of Y/Y ↓ – Will Be Difficult To Sustain Momentum

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

U.S. corporate profits adjusted for inventory and depreciation in 3Q16 grew the most quarter-over-quarter since 2Q14.  They rose 6.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.15 trillion, breaking five consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline (Chart 4).  Profits peaked … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2016. 10-year note: Like that, 10-year Treasury yields rallied north of 100 basis points in four and a half months – from the all-time low 1.34 percent on July 6 … Continued

Divergent Price Signal – Prudent To Have One Foot Out The Door

Price is the final arbiter … is an often-quoted axiom in finance.  Has truth in it.  For a trend to establish itself, price has to cooperate.  As long as this continues, there is no use fighting it.  Of course, all … Continued

Recent Spurt In Rates Bound To Hurt Housing, If Sustained — Likely Not Sustainable

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

U.S. sales of homes – both new and existing – are at/near cycle highs.  This amidst personal incomes that are struggling to rise with surging home prices.  Against this background comes the recent backup in mortgage rates, particularly post-Trump victory.  … Continued

Dollar Index Breaks Out To 13-Year High – Probably Safe To Fade

Post-Trump victory, the Treasury yield curve has moved up as well as steepened, with the 10-year yield rising 47 basis points to 2.34 percent.  Yields have risen one full point since the July 6th all-time low of 1.34 percent. Inflation … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2016. 10-year note: Post-Trump victory, the bond market has swiftly priced in higher inflation.  The U.S. economy is in its eighth year of expansion, although growth remains subdued. On a … Continued

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