This chart shows how correlated Fed assets are with US stocks

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The sun always rises in the east and sets in the west.  But in life, things are not always this straightforward.  Besides black and white, there is this thing called gray.  And in the gray territory, things can get confusing.  … Continued

US homebuilders optimistic in survey but cautious in investing

posted in: Economy | 0

US housing starts were a real downer in August, down 14 percent month-over-month, to 956k.  Multi-family really took it on the chin, down 32 percent (304k), even as single-family relatively fared better, down two percent (643k).  Monthly data tend to … Continued

Fed aims at low rates so low-cost servicing on federal debt is ensured

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

As we await the FOMC statement this afternoon, the adjacent chart is apropos.  In it, US federal debt has been plotted against interest payments (seasonally adjusted annual rates) of the federal government.  The latter is calculated as a share of … Continued

Corporate capX subdued, but bond issuance on course for another record year

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Another year, another record issuance!  Probably.  US corporate bond issuance is on course for another record year.  August-to-date, as per the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, corporations have issued $939.2bn, of which investment-grade is $738.2bn and high-yield $201.1bn.  In … Continued

Draghi surprises; FXE downtrend accelerates, nears support

As discussed last week that non-commercial futures traders might just once again be ahead of the curve in anticipating market reaction to Thursday’s ECB decision, they indeed were.  By Tuesday (last week), they had raised net shorts in euro futures … Continued

Revised 2Q14 GDP numbers once again revive hopes of capX revival

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The revised 2Q14 GDP numbers last week have rekindled hopes of a corporate capital spending revival in the U.S.  It was the second estimate (preliminary), so there is one more revision to go.  Nevertheless, several inputs related to corporate spending … Continued

Odds of short squeeze next to nothing in foreseeable future

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

NYSE Composite short interest in the middle of August was essentially unchanged month-over-month at 14.8bn, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a 2.4-percent decrease at 8.6bn.  The adjacent chart and the one below show how short interest has been building up … Continued

U.S. sales of new homes yet to catch up with ebullient builder sentiment, Part Two

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The piece yesterday on U.S. housing was based on June’s numbers.  New-home sales data came out yesterday, and it was anything but encouraging.  Year-over-year, sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) rose 12.2 percent but fell 2.4 percent month-over-month.  The latter helps … Continued

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