Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 275.7k, up 14.1k. The support-turned-resistance at 2.62 percent was tested – unsuccessfully – Wednesday when the 10-year yield (2.56 percent) rallied to 2.61 percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 261.6k, up 37.3k. During the week, job openings painted a mixed picture. Non-farm job openings (JOLTS) for February dropped 538,000 month-over-month to 7.1 million. … Continued
Kudos to equity bulls for pulling off an impressive reversal off of late-December lows. Major indices have now rallied for over three months, pushing them into extended territory. Looking at VIX futures, a lot of the good news is in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week. Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued
The 1Q19 earnings season is upon us. Expected growth has softened. The bar is low. The sell-side expects growth to pick up speed in the second half. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies are expected to grow 9.1 percent this … Continued
The 10-year T-yield not only lost a rising trend line from July 2016 but also decade-old support at 2.62 percent. TLT has been on a tear, but is overbought; digestion of the recent gains is the path of least resistance. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 166.3k, up 2.3k. Mid-December last year, the 10-year Treasury rate lost a trend line from July 2016 when it bottomed at 1.34 percent. This … Continued
Job growth and household formation are healthy. However, housing starts are falling behind. Not to mention the yawning gap between renter-occupied versus owner-occupied housing units. The post-financial crisis recovery is just three months short of completing a decade. Great Recession … Continued
Stocks rallied for three months in defiance of deteriorating macro data. By essentially putting an end to the tightening cycle, the Fed is acknowledging this. Stocks could be the next. What just happened? Many are probably asking that question after … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 164k, down 12.5k. The Fed Wednesday held interest rates steady at 225-250 basis points. This was expected. What was not expected was the dovish … Continued