Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 31, 2018. Beginning December 21, the CFTC was not able to publish reports on time due to the partial shutdown of the federal government, which has now reopened. Last Friday, data … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 24, 2018. The below is from the CFTC site. “The last COT report was published on December 21, 2018. Reports going forward from that date will be published in chronological order … Continued
Bulls last week defended support at 2600-2630 on the S&P 500, which has rallied massively since bottoming on December 26. Daily conditions are deeply overbought, pricing in a dovish Fed. A two-day FOMC meeting begins Tuesday. A ‘buy the rumor, … Continued
US home sales peaked in November 2017, homebuilder sentiment in December 2017, and housing starts in January 2018. From its January 2018 intraday high through December low, ITB collapsed 39 percent. It is trying to bottom, but currently in no-man’s … Continued
Since the intraday low on Boxing Day, SPY is up nearly 11 percent. Too far, too fast? Possibly, as the ETF is just a hair breadth away from support-turned-resistance at 260, which it lost mid-December. The Fed has a dual … Continued
Corporate bond issuance in December simply collapsed. In that same month, Steven Mnuchin held talks with major US banks to make sure they had ample liquidity. While this does not help shore up investor confidence, other metrics such as the … Continued
Fundamentals are still a suspect, but US stocks were treated with soothing comments from Fed chief last week. Bulls have the ball, but bears are likely to show up at $260 on SPY. Speaking at the American Economic Association’s annual … Continued
Volatility has picked up in US stocks. This is a perfect environment for traders who are nimble enough and ready to take ones and twos, quickly locking in what markets give them. It is increasingly becoming clear why stocks began … Continued
It is probably not coincidental that US stocks and Treasury yields peaked together early October. The 10-year rate is right near support and has room to rally near term. This should bode well for equity bulls who last week put … Continued
From early October, the S&P 500 is down 18 percent. Important support lies at 2400, or just underneath. Several indicators are at/near panic levels. Risk-reward odds favor unwinding of these conditions sooner than later. There is blood on the Street. … Continued