CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 245.3k, up 66.4k. Bond bears (on price) keep hammering on a potentially crucial level.  The 10-year Treasury yield (1.92 percent) dropped to 1.43 percent … Continued

US Stocks At New Highs, With Help From Foreigners, Who Have Been Selling Treasuries

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices posted fresh new highs Monday.  For a while now, foreigners have lent a helping hand, although they at the same time have been aggressively selling US Treasury securities.  Equity bulls would prefer foreigners to maintain the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 178.9k, down 43k. As expected, the Fed stood pat.  This week’s FOMC meeting – the year’s eighth and last – left the fed funds … Continued

Post-Russell 2000 Breakout, NFIB Survey Shows Big Improvement In Small-Business Profit Trend

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Two weeks after the Russell 2000 breaks out, November’s data shows big improvement in small-business profit trend.  Job openings is another data point worth watching.  Small-business openings currently are diverging with the national trend. The recent breakout in small-caps is … Continued

Russell 2000 Breakout, Until Proven Otherwise, Deserves Benefit Of Doubt

The Russell 2000 has broken out.  There are many reasons to doubt the breakout – ranging from elevated valuations to falling profit estimates to several soft economic data points.  But as long as the breakout remains intact, bulls deserve the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 221.9k, up 76.2k. Next week, the FOMC meets.  It is this year’s eighth and last meeting.  Markets do not expect the Fed to move.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 26, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 145.7k, down 37.8k. In the last nine weeks, the Federal Reserve’s SOMA (System … Continued

Small-Cap Bulls Hope Last Week’s Breakout Precedes Stability In Both Macro And Earnings

Small-caps broke out last week.  This comes amidst earnings deceleration and softening in several macro data.  If things turn up as they did in early 2016, bulls would have been vindicated.  Their conviction level will be put to test by … Continued

Risks Growing Lagging Small-Caps End Up Pulling Leading Large-Caps Lower

Markets have been in dichotomy, with large-caps leading and small-caps lagging.  Bulls were hoping the former would pull the latter along.  But risks are rising things will evolve the opposite way.  It is early, but subtle signs of fatigue are … Continued