TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund, declined 16 percent between the all-time intra-day high of 137.09 on January 30 and the low of 115.26 last Wednesday. It is as if the bond market globally has been awakened from … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 9, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the IMF urged the Fed to delay a rate hike until 2016. This week, the World Bank said the same thing. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 2, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Yields have decisively broken out of a five-month downtrend channel. The only question is what triggered this. To quote the Beige Book: “The … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 19, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The April FOMC minutes for all intents and purposes put a nail in the coffin of June rate-hike odds. At the March meeting, … Continued
It is an understatement to say that trading in Treasury bonds was volatile last week – just check out the action on various yields. From intra-day low to high, the 10-year yield swung 20 basis points, but closed out the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 12, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on weekly closing prices, the 10-year yield had a lackluster week – essentially flat. Nothing could be further from … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 5, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: It was a weird week. That is an understatement. Up until Wednesday, 10-year yields were up 20 basis points. Treasurys on the long … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 28, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The week was a head-scratcher from the standpoint of bond vigilantes’ reaction. The 10-year yield rallied hard on a very weak 1Q15 GDP … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 14, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield fell in all five sessions. Friday could have been different as March core CPI was initially treated as hawkish, but … Continued
U.S. bond market and Fed lock horns as relates to trajectory of short rates Fed continues to drop hints it is ready to lift rates off near-zero levels Should that come to pass, it has potential to help vigilantes’ case … Continued