CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 710.7k, down 2.2k. Yet another week and yet another intraday high! Thursday, the 10-year treasury yield reached the highest since July 2007 – a … Continued

Amid Heightened Inflation Worry, 10-Year T-Yield Vulnerable To Downside Surprise

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

As talk around inflation has gone up several notches, the 10-year treasury yield sits on triple support. A breach has room to squeeze TLT shorts. Inflation is front and center. It is perky. As recently as February this year, core … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 26, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Two important developments took place this week in central banking. First, the Fed.  This week’s FOMC meeting was a non-event.  No interest-rate decision … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 17, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hawks are in, doves are out. At least that is how markets are beginning to bet on the odds of an interest-rate hike … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 11, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: How might the renminbi devaluation impact the Fed’s desire to hike rates this year?  The devaluation is at least disinflationary as far U.S. … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 4, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell told CNBC on Wednesday that he has not made up his mind yet on whether interest rates should … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 14, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Fed Chair Janet Yellen during her mid-week Humphrey-Hawkins testimony reiterated her desire to hike interest rates later this year, if data cooperate.  On … Continued

Weekly Cash-Secured Put On TLT

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

As expected, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony yesterday, reiterated what she, and other Fed officials, have been saying for a while.  They are data dependent, and if data cooperate, a rate hike is coming later this year.  … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 30, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials continue to reduce net shorts – currently lowest since September 23rd last year.  They have reduced net shorts by 98 percent in … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 23, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Yields pushed up nearly 21 basis points for the week.  Sales of both new and existing homes did well in May (even though … Continued