CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 41.3k, down 23.2k. After dropping last week out of a five-month, 2.62 percent-2.31 percent range, 10-year Treasury yields (2.24 percent) proceeded to drop to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 64.5k, up 8.8k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.23 percent) are breaking down. Shortly after post-election backup in yields last November, the 10-year began to so … Continued

TLT Repelled At Resistance – Likely Headed Lower Near Term

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity.  Sort of.  Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating.  This resistance goes back to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 55.8k, down 13.9k. Post-FOMC minutes Wednesday, the S&P 500 large cap index reversed hard, shedding 1.1 percent between 2 pm and 3:30 pm.  This … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 69.4k, down 30.9k. Fed officials are beginning to jawbone – again. Tuesday, Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, said he forecasts two more hikes this year.  … Continued

Interesting Dynamics Between Non-Commercials’ Eurodollar And 10-Year-Note Futures

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias.  In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher.  Are they right? Since … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued

Flatter Yield Curve Makes Fed’s Job Harder – Rally In Financials In Limbo

Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture.  This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 194.4k, down 104.1k. Equities up. Gold up.  The US dollar index down.  Ten-year Treasury yields down.  This is how markets reacted to Wednesday’s FOMC … Continued

Dollar Index – Likely Focused On Yield Curve – Acts Confused

The US dollar index (cash) acts confused. Later today, it is all but certain that the Fed announces a hike in the fed funds rate.  This would be the third increase since December 2015, when for the first time since … Continued

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