CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 156k, up 14.7k. Last Friday’s high of 1.62 percent on the 10-year treasury yield represents a lower high versus 1.77 percent posted in March … Continued

10-Tear T-Yield Likely Hit Its High In March

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

The Fed is under intense pressure to not only taper but to do so with aggression. Going by the prior three iterations of QE, the 10-year tends to peak mid-way through the program. In March, rates touched 1.77 percent. Last … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 5, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 141.3k, down 39.9k. Minutes for the September 21-22 FOMC meeting are due out next Wednesday. During the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell set the stage … Continued

Going By Prior 3 Iterations Of QE, 10-Year T-Yield’s March High Could Prove To Be Important In Current QE

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On a 12-month basis, the US budget deficit may have peaked, but at the same time the Fed is also getting ready to taper. In the past, the 10-year peaked mid-way through QE. From this perspective, the March high of … Continued

After Tough September, Major US Equity Indices Ready For Relief Rally – Magnitude/Timing Notwithstanding

Investor sentiment has taken a hit in recent weeks but can continue lower in the right circumstances, although a pause is likely right here and now, helping stocks. Stocks took it on the nose in September. The S&P 500 tumbled … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 28, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 181.2k, up 120k. In February last year, the 10-year treasury yield breached mid-1.40s, before tumbling to bottom at 0.4 percent in the following month. … Continued

Amidst Signs Of Excesses, 50-Day Once Again Defended On S&P 500; Fed Readies To Taper/Tighten

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The 50-day on the S&P 500 was once again defended. Households’ equity exposure is on course for yet another high in 3Q, even as margin debt jumped to yet another record in August. Amidst these signs of excesses, the Fed … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 21, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 61.2k, down 68.2k. Markets took this week’s FOMC meeting well. Stocks recovered after heavy losses in the first two sessions. Bonds sold off, with … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 14, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 129.4k, up 128.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the 6th scheduled meeting this year, and two more remain – one in … Continued

10-Year T-Yield Not Bothered By Tapering Talk; Of Late, Foreigners Warming Up To Treasury Notes And Bonds

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

At a time when the Fed is getting ready to taper its purchases of treasury bonds, foreigners are warming up to these securities. The 10-year yield cannot break through low-1.40s resistance. In July, foreigners bought $10.2 billion in treasury notes … Continued