Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 5, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 636.5k, down 48.9k. The FOMC meets next Tuesday-Wednesday. This will be the year’s last meeting. They are expected to do nothing. The last hike … Continued
More evidence came out this week that the labor market is in deceleration and more weakness lies ahead. Non-farm job openings tumbled 617,000 month-over-month in October to 8.73 million. This was the lowest since March 2021. The series reached a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 28, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 685.4k, up 27.2k. Non-commercials do not seem ready to let go of their bearish bias just yet. This week, their holdings of net shorts … Continued
Kudos to equity bulls for having cashed in on last Tuesday’s CPI report, which was just a tad better than expected. With three up weeks in a row, the S&P 500 – as overbought as it is on the daily … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 14, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 661.8k, up 57.3k. After six months of uninterrupted rally, the 10-year treasury yield is on pace to a down month. So far this month, … Continued
It is probable the 10-year T-yield has peaked at five percent. In this scenario, a sustained move lower will put shorts, who were heavily betting on higher rates, under pressure to cover. Two weeks ago, the 10-year treasury yield met … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 31, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 627.7k, up 64.3k. The 10-year treasury yield has peaked. For three consecutive sessions last month, it tried to unsuccessfully take out five percent, with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 24, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 563.4k, down 147.4k. The FOMC meets next week. After this, there is only one scheduled meeting left this year – on December 12-13. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 713k, down 20.9k. The 10-year treasury yield was volatile this week, to say the least. The five sessions went like this – up, down, … Continued
With high-single-digit losses in major US stock indices since mid- to late-July, bulls made it clear last week they are putting their foot down. A reflex rally is probable. The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest later this week, and … Continued