Fed’s Hawkish Desire Versus Uncooperative Macro Data

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May.  Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued

S&P 500 Index: 200-DMA Path Of Least Resistance?

A week ago last Friday, U.S. stocks opened lower reacting to less-than-expected rise in April’s non-farm payroll.  As the session progressed, bids showed up, as traders began to price in lesser odds of a rate hike in June. Turns out … Continued

Momentum Continues In U.S. Equities, With VIX:VXV Continuing To Flash Caution

Are we seeing a classic ‘stocks turn ahead of fundamentals’ phenomenon? U.S. equities in general bottomed on February 11th after a brutal sell-off in January.  From late-December 2015 highs through the afore-mentioned low, the S&P 500 index dropped 13 percent … Continued

Markets Not Worried About Inflation Intermediate-Term, They Are Probably Right

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The Federal Reserve would like some inflation.  In fact, every major central bank would.  Or, for that matter, every debtor would – be it an individual, a corporation, or a sovereign nation. For debtors, a little inflation goes a long … Continued

Oct Spike In U.S. Average Hourly Earnings Sign Of Things To Come, Or Little Early To Celebrate?

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Last week when October’s jobs report was published, there was one particular data point that really jumped out.  The average hourly earnings of private-sector employees jumped 2.5 percent year-over-year, to $25.20 (Chart 1).  This was the fastest rate employee earnings … Continued

Case For U.S. Rates Needing To Stay Lower For Longer

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The energizer bunny marches on.  The U.S. consumer, that is. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew an annualized 1.5 percent.  This was the first estimate, so it probably gets revised up or down by the time we have … Continued

Ray Of Light Amidst Dark Clouds Of Heavy Corporate Debt Issuance

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U.S. corporations have had their share of blame as relates to capital expenditures, wages, etc., but have done a commendable job when it comes to taking advantage of the prevailing low interest-rate environment. Corporate profits have come a long way.  … Continued