Amidst Pervasive Bullish Sentiment, Signs Of Exhaustion Show Up In US Equity Indices

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Amidst ecstatic bullish sentiment, major US equity indices last week exhibited signs of exhaustion. Confirmation is needed, but equity bears may have an opening here – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Equity bulls are too bulled up. Chart 1 combines three … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 713.3k, up 47.7k. Once again, markets are demanding more versus what the Federal Reserve is willing to give. Going into this week, fed funds … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 859k, up 74.3k. January produced a blockbuster payrolls report. The economy added 353,000 non-farm jobs and the prior months were revised higher. This only … Continued

Equity Bulls And Bears Defend Their Turf; Former Has Opportunity To Cash In On Bearish Sentiment That Has Built Up In Options

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 saw buyers and sellers pounce on opportunity at important technical levels. Bulls have an opportunity to cash in on bearish sentiment that has sharply risen of late in the options market. For that, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 22, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 694.9k, down 52k. It was a yawner to say the least – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at the annual Jackson Hole … Continued

S&P 500, Russell 2000 Unable To Meaningfully Build On Recent Breakout, Retest Ahead

Both large- and small-caps have failed to meaningfully build on their recent breakout. They were stopped at important spot and now risk breakout retest. From last October’s low to the July 27th high of 4607, the S&P 500 shot up … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 1, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 645.2k, up 21.4k. No sooner did the 10-year treasury yield break out of 4.09 percent, which resisted rally attempts in February and early July, … Continued

Combination Of Higher Prices And Lower Earnings Pushes Up Multiples, Turning Equity Bulls With Tons Of Paper Profit Into Jitttery Bunch

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Since last October’s bottom in stocks, trillions in additional wealth have been added. Prices headed north, even as earnings headed south, helping push up multiples. This also makes equity bulls, who are sitting on loads of paper profit, jittery, as … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 623.8k, down 5.8k. This week, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 525 basis points … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 27, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 365.2k, up 135.6k. Ae we there yet? Makes you wonder considering how the long end of the treasury yield curve has been behaving. The … Continued