Major U.S. Indices Clinging On To Support – Medium-Term Risk High

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bears have been rewarded the past couple of weeks, with the S&P 500 large cap index down 1.6 percent.  There is likely more reward medium term, but near-term is a toss-up. In the wake of the 2.5-percent drop on … Continued

Weekly Cash-Secured Put On SPY

Third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest this week.  Operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies have been persistently coming down for 2015 – from as high as $137.52 at the end of the second quarter last year to $110.98 as … Continued

Bulls Have More To Worry Long-Term Than If August Lows Hold

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With all the hand-wringing over whether or not the August lows will hold, this is the least of bulls’ worries.  Bigger challenges probably lie ahead. Of the big four – the S&P 500 index, the Dow Industrials, the Nasdaq composite, … Continued

Bulls On Back Foot, Bears’ Growl Getting Louder

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

2134.72. That is the all-time record the S&P 500 Index (1948.86) notched on May 20.  It is possible in the annals of stock market history this high will be viewed with the same level of trepidation/respect as 1553.11 (March 2000 … Continued

This Stock Rout Has Potential To Be More Than Plain-Vanilla Correction

Velocity of declines in equities breakneck and unsettling Worse scenario is if oversold bounce/rally gets sold hard near resistance If consumer/CEO confidence is impaired, Fed’s tool box empty to tackle weaker economy Another interesting session in the markets! Stocks picked … Continued

Cash-Secured Put On TLT

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund, declined 16 percent between the all-time intra-day high of 137.09 on January 30 and the low of 115.26 last Wednesday. It is as if the bond market globally has been awakened from … Continued

Loss Of October 2014 Trendline Widespread Across U.S. Indices

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Major U.S. indices have lost October 2014 trendline Other medium- to longer-term trendlines and support zones are intact Since trendline break is not in isolation, rather across indices, worth paying attention to Five weeks ago, the S&P 500 Index (2094.11) … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 21, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are bond vigilantes expecting a hawkish tone from the FOMC next week?  The latter meets on 28-29.  For the most part, macro data … Continued

U.S. Housing Data Mixed: Home Construction ETF (ITB) In Focus

posted in: Economy | 0

This week is perfect to be discussing U.S. housing dynamics as the March sales numbers for existing and new homes were just published.  The report was mixed.  Sales of existing homes rose 6.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.19 … Continued