Amidst Last Week’s Bloodbath, Bulls Defend Crucial Support On Major US Equity Indices Fri

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Last week, all major US equity indices lost north of 10 percent and were down a lot more at session lows Friday.  If there is any consolation in this, amidst the carnage, bulls stepped up to defend important support.  Some … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 12, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 336k, down 61.6k. With this week’s 25-basis-point raise, the fed funds rate now stands at 175-200 basis points, up 175 basis points since December … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one?  The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued

Unwinding Of Balance Sheet News – Real News Is When Fed Reverses Decision

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

It is probably a foregone conclusion that the Fed later today leaves interest rates unchanged, and will announce a plan to gradually shrink its massive portfolio of mortgage and Treasury bonds. The question is, how would the markets react?  The … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 263k, down 39.1k. The speed by which long rates rose the past couple of weeks took many by surprise.  Intraday between June 26 and … Continued

Commodities Rally – Relief or Something More? Watching Non-Commercials For Clues

Commodities had a nice week last week. After five consecutive weekly losses, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index rallied 4.2 percent last week, but dropped 2.8 percent anyway in June – its sixth straight negative month. Last week’s action is encouraging, but … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 25, 2016. 10-year note: Rates are rising.  From 1.34 percent on July 6 this year to 1.88 percent on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield has come a long way.  In … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 11, 2016. 10-year note: In late September, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, said the bank might be able to help the U.S. economy in a downturn if it could buy stocks … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 4, 2016. 10-year note: Bloomberg ran a story on Tuesday saying the ECB would probably gradually wind down bond purchases before the end of quantitative easing, and that it may … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016. 10-year note: A steeper yield curve is typically associated with a strengthening economy.  So when the Bank of Japan says it will target a steeper yield curve, what … Continued