Bulls, Bears Likely Lock Horns Around 2600 On S&P 500 Next

It is probably not coincidental that US stocks and Treasury yields peaked together early October.  The 10-year rate is right near support and has room to rally near term.  This should bode well for equity bulls who last week put … Continued

Odds Growing Sharp Reflex Rally In S&P 500 Sooner Than Later

From early October, the S&P 500 is down 18 percent.  Important support lies at 2400, or just underneath.  Several indicators are at/near panic levels.  Risk-reward odds favor unwinding of these conditions sooner than later. There is blood on the Street.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 18, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.8k, down 13k. With pressure growing from diverse quarters, including the White House, to stay pat in this week’s meeting, the Fed went ahead … Continued

FOMC Likely To Soften Tone/Language, Watch Out If Stocks Cannot Rally On This

The FOMC meets this week.  A 25-basis-point hike is expected, so is a shift to a dovish bias.  Watch out if stocks, beaten up the past two and a half months, cannot rally on this, and/or shorts quickly show up … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 393.8k, up 100.6k. Next week – on 18-19 – the FOMC meets.  This is the last meeting this year.  A 25-basis-point raise is expected, … Continued

If G-20 Disappoints, Weakness Likely Gets Bought In Seasonally Favorable Period

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

In a session the S&P 500 rallied 2.3 percent, VIX held up better on Wednesday.  It is probably due to the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks over the weekend in Argentina.  Should, come Monday, stocks initially get roiled it is … Continued

Small-Caps Last Week Continued To Bleed But Performed Relatively Better – Signal Or Noise?

US stocks continued to take it on the chin last week.  Amidst this rout that began early October, small-caps last week performed relatively better.  Bulls hope this is a signal, not a noise, at least near term. US M2 money … Continued

Options, Investor Sentiment Do Not Show Panic For Major Bottom In Stocks

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 sits at/near October lows.  How the bull-bear duel resolves in the next few sessions will decide the path of least resistance in this seasonally favorable period.  Options and investor sentiment do not reflect panic.  If stocks rally … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent.  Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by … Continued