Equity Momentum Faded As Last Week Progressed, Bearish Sentiment Not Elevated Enough To Help Out Bulls

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Equity bulls rallied the major US stock indices strongly early last week, but the momentum faded as the week progressed. One of the reasons for this is the lack of potential tailwind coming from heightened bearish sentiment. Equity bulls are … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 713k, down 20.9k. The 10-year treasury yield was volatile this week, to say the least. The five sessions went like this – up, down, … Continued

Equity Indices At Decent Support; Near Term, Odds Favor Equity Bulls More Than Bears

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After three or four down weeks, major US equity indices have reached decent support. Right here and now, odds favor bulls more than bears. From its July 27th high through last Wednesday’s low, the S&P 500 gave back eight percent. … Continued

Tech Leads, Small-Caps Lag; Nasdaq 100-Russell 2000 Ratio Nearing March 2000 Record High, Raising Reversal Risks

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Tech is radiating this year and small-caps are in slumber. A ratio between the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 is nearing a March 2000 record high. A failure here can begin a process of unwinding the overbought condition the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.7k, up 11.9k. Next Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s second; six more remain after this. Ahead of this, fed … Continued

Major Indices Fail To Save Recent Breakouts, But Bulls Have Not Quite Given Up Yet

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Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on Monday broke out of ascending triangle but only to reverse hard lower. That said, bulls have not quite given up yet. They continue to show up at/near shorter-term moving averages. Before this … Continued

Unlike 3 Weeks Ago, Bulls’ Defense Tue Of Crucial Support On Major US Equity Indices Produces Mixed Results

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Merely three weeks after successfully testing crucial trend-line support, major US equity indices once again go through a similar experience on Tuesday – successfully but only this time the save was not as clean. At the end of January, major … Continued

After Putting Foot Down Last Week, Bulls Make More Progress This Week; Bears Likely To Provide Resistance Here

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After four negative weeks, equity bulls should be happy with how things have panned out week-to-date but it is far from all-clear. The Nasdaq 100 reclaimed the 50-day, while the S&P 500 closed Tuesday right on it. Both broke through … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 31, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 53k, down 159k. In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went up another $432.2 billion to $4.77 trillion – a … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

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Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 3, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 156.7k, down 117.3k. It seems nothing matters.  On a day the bond market found out the US economy produced much-better-than-expected 273,000 non-farm jobs in … Continued