January saw margin debt only inch up, even as the S&P 500 rallied 1.6 percent. This divergence, should it continue in the months ahead, could end up helping equity bears more than the bulls. The S&P 500 opened 2024 with … Continued
NYSE margin debt just made an all-time high of $507.2 billion in April. It fell 1.6 percent in May. This was the first month-over-month drop in four months. In the first five months this year, it grew nearly $43 billion. … Continued
Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capital expenditures – continue to lose momentum. Year-over-year growth dipped in the negative territory for the first time since January 2014. One month does not a trend make, but there … Continued
Margin debt jumps $20bn in Feb to nearly match all-time high a year ago Interesting, tight correlation between margin debt and U.S. banks’ C&I loans Rise in inventories-to-sales ratio probably suggests imminent slowdown in C&I loans NYSE margin debt shot … Continued
Different messages coming out of two financial ETFs – KBE vs. XLF KBE similar to KRE, regional bank ETF, while XLF is large cap-dominated C&I loans have been growing nicely, but so is inventories-to-sales ratio, muddying picture How did U.S. … Continued
Nice pickup in U.S. C&I loans in recent months, but… From time QE started, banks’ excess reserves at Fed have quadrupled Odds of these reserves making way into economy essentially nil as loan demand weak In recent months, there has … Continued
Sideways movement in margin debt a sign investors’ risk appetite waning? 35-year correlation between stocks and margin debt of 0.95, 2014 was only 0.28 In 2000 and 2007, peak in margin debt preceded peak in C&I loans by one-plus year … Continued
As world’s largest debtor and one running deficit, U.S. needs constant demand for Treasurys Recycling of petrodollars has been reliable source of demand for U.S. federal debt So far, drop in price of crude has not adversely impacted this demand … Continued
One of the perplexing things in the current economic cycle has been the suppressed velocity of money. Six years into recovery, velocity has yet to pick up steam. As the chart below shows, excess reserves have gone toe-to-toe with the … Continued