Rates Diverge With Equities – TLT Pushes Through Aug ’19 Falling Trendline

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

The year is quite young, but things have not quite turned out the way bond bears were hoping they would.  The 10-year T-yield last week pierced through trend-line support from last September.  In due course, this likely opens the door … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 302.5k, up 79k. The FOMC meets next week – on 28-29.  This is the year’s first meeting.  Markets do not expect the Fed to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 223.6k, up 44.3k. Bond bulls and bears continue to fight over control of trend-line support from early September when the 10-year Treasury yield (1.84 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 179.2k, down 55.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.83 percent) was rejected at 1.95-1.97 percent in both November and December.  The drop since found support … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 31, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to New Year’s holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 234.8k, down 33.9k. Last week, the 10-year T-yield (1.81 percent) essentially … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 24, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 268.7k, up 23.3k. Last Tuesday’s intraday high of 1.95 percent was yet … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 245.3k, up 66.4k. Bond bears (on price) keep hammering on a potentially crucial level.  The 10-year Treasury yield (1.92 percent) dropped to 1.43 percent … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 178.9k, down 43k. As expected, the Fed stood pat.  This week’s FOMC meeting – the year’s eighth and last – left the fed funds … Continued

Russell 2000 Breakout, Until Proven Otherwise, Deserves Benefit Of Doubt

The Russell 2000 has broken out.  There are many reasons to doubt the breakout – ranging from elevated valuations to falling profit estimates to several soft economic data points.  But as long as the breakout remains intact, bulls deserve the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 221.9k, up 76.2k. Next week, the FOMC meets.  It is this year’s eighth and last meeting.  Markets do not expect the Fed to move.  … Continued