Pie-In-Sky Optimism Risks Hard-Landing

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Regardless whether or not it is solely related to the outcome of the November 8 U.S. presidential election, several data points have seen an uptick since. Stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 large cap index up nearly six percent between … Continued

December Payroll Report Ignites Hopes Of Wage Acceleration – How Justified?

posted in: Economy | 0

The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent.  December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued

Fed May Have Missed Opportunity – Again!

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

In late 2014/early 2015, U.S. economic data began to either stall or decelerate. Take capacity utilization, for instance.  It peaked at 78.9 percent in November 2014, peaking before tagging 80 percent (Chart 1).  The Fed funds rate was still near … Continued

Having Rallied To Right Underneath Jan ‘15 Resistance, TLT Looks Tired N/T

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

April’s retail sales released last Friday were better than expected – up 1.3 percent month-over-month and up three percent year-over-year.  This was the largest m/m increase since March last year. Yet, the Treasury yield curve flattened in that session, with … Continued

Spot Gold Clinging On To Recent Breakout

There is a lot of excitement among non-commercial futures traders about spot gold’s prospects.  In the 12 weeks since February 9th through May 3rd, they nearly tripled net longs in gold futures – from 98,428 to 271,648 contracts – to … Continued

Markets Not Worried About Inflation Intermediate-Term, They Are Probably Right

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Federal Reserve would like some inflation.  In fact, every major central bank would.  Or, for that matter, every debtor would – be it an individual, a corporation, or a sovereign nation. For debtors, a little inflation goes a long … Continued

Fed Set To Set Precedent

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The year’s last FOMC meeting begins today.  Tomorrow, we will probably witness the first rate hike in nine years. On June 29, 2006, the fed funds rate was pushed up by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and stayed there … Continued

Inflation/Inflation Expectations And Fed’s Desire To Hike On Divergent Paths

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

“The assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.” The above is from the October 28th FOMC statement … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 14, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield fell in all five sessions.  Friday could have been different as March core CPI was initially treated as hawkish, but … Continued