Reversing Weeks Of Decline, Major US Equity Indices Had Great Last Week; Probably More Room To Run In Weeks Ahead

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

Reversing weeks of downward pressure, major US stock indices had a big week last week. There is room to run, if nothing else just to unwind the oversold condition they are in. With one session to go, May is setting … Continued

With Fundamentals Unlikely To Improve Any Time Soon, Watching Technicals For Signal

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Stanley Fischer, Federal Reserve vice chair, last week stated that U.S. inflation should rebound next year.  As things stand now, government data do not show much inflation. In September, consumer prices, measured by the consumer price index, were unchanged in … Continued

Fed Wants/Expects Uptick In Inflation, Markets Do Not Foresee One

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

“Most of my colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter as the … Continued

Markets Doing Fed’s Work — Real Interest Rates Are Tighter

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Market participants have no clue how to read Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.  The latter failed to settle the debate as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will move in September.  Treasury bonds are acting as if the message was dovish … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 9, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the IMF urged the Fed to delay a rate hike until 2016.  This week, the World Bank said the same thing. … Continued

Fed craves higher inflation yet pays interest on reserves!

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Government’s various measures of inflation continue to elude Fed’s 2% target U.S. banks’ excess reserves have followed QE higher, and are sitting idle By paying interest on reserves, Fed encourages banks to sit on them The Federal Reserve wants inflation.  … Continued

‘Buy the dips’ in process of transitioning into ‘sell the rallies’?

’15 growth in revenue/earnings expected to decelerate for most S&P 500 sectors Signal from options market points to probable pressure ahead for equities S&P 500 looks set to at least test if recent breakout was genuine At first glance, U.S. … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 24 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials are doing it again.  They increased net shorts by 63 percent in the latest reporting period.  Turns out they picked a wrong … Continued

One common reason why Fed, ECB and BoJ hanker for inflation

posted in: Currency, Economy | 0

Debtors prefer inflation; the more the better Fed, ECB and BoJ yearning for higher inflation, but latter is no-show Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility when to hike rates, which has investment implications There is no shortage of issues that … Continued