More Room To Rally Should Technical Rulebook Plays Out, But…

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The Russell 2000 small cap index (1370.70) is stuck in a rut at a higher plateau.  Sort of. The index has gone sideways for seven weeks now.  In the meantime, it rose to an all-time high of 1392.71 on December … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 24, 2017. 10-year note: Yields (cash) rose 14 basis points for the week to 2.48 percent, having risen as high as 2.56 percent intra-day Thursday.  Earlier, they bottomed at 2.31 percent … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high.  Ten-year yields … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012.  In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued

OPEC Wants Higher Price But Not High Enough To Aid U.S. Shale

Over the weekend, non-OPEC producers agreed to cut crude output by 558,000 barrels per day, of which Russia would reduce by 300,000 b/d.  This followed OPEC’s November 30 decision to cut output by 1.2 million b/d. The deal goes into … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 8, 2016. 10-year note: The 25-basis-point hike in the Fed funds rate last December was the first in nine-plus years.  At 0.4 percent, rates are still zero-bound.  Growth remains sluggish, but … Continued

Major U.S. Indices Clinging On To Support – Medium-Term Risk High

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bears have been rewarded the past couple of weeks, with the S&P 500 large cap index down 1.6 percent.  There is likely more reward medium term, but near-term is a toss-up. In the wake of the 2.5-percent drop on … Continued

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