CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.2k, up 32.9k. Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased, probably by 25 basis points to a range of 200 to 225 basis points.  … Continued

Small-Caps Last Week Continued To Bleed But Performed Relatively Better – Signal Or Noise?

US stocks continued to take it on the chin last week.  Amidst this rout that began early October, small-caps last week performed relatively better.  Bulls hope this is a signal, not a noise, at least near term. US M2 money … Continued

By Year-End, Fed Funds On Pace To Exceed Inflation Rate – That Should Begin To Bite

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

If the Fed moves in September and December, the fed funds rate will be in excess of core inflation.  In a leveraged economy, that should begin to bite.  The FOMC dot plot expects three more hikes next year.  This is … Continued

Scenario In Which U.S. M2 Money Velocity Continues Lower

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

If a chart gets retweeted 86 times, it is safe to say that the topic in question has touched a nerve in Twitter finance. The chart above had that distinction.  The topic it highlighted thus deserves a post.  So here … Continued

Fed craves higher inflation yet pays interest on reserves!

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Government’s various measures of inflation continue to elude Fed’s 2% target U.S. banks’ excess reserves have followed QE higher, and are sitting idle By paying interest on reserves, Fed encourages banks to sit on them The Federal Reserve wants inflation.  … Continued

No rate hike in foreseeable future

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

Fed gets rid of “patient”, but hints it will be patient in hiking rates Surging dollar impacts exports; Fed takes 2015 GDP forecast down a notch With economic data increasingly coming in weak, rate-hike odds this year next to nil  … Continued

Gold is bottoming, only question is duration

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Improvement in gold’s price action in recent sessions Key will be if non-commercials begin to add to net long gold futures Looks to be bottoming, but still tentative; short GLD puts safe way to go for now Gold ($1,187.9) is … Continued