CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 14, 2017. 10-year note: On February 15, 10-year yields hit 2.52 percent before retreating.  That high tagged a declining trend line from December 15 when yields hit 2.62 percent intraday.  This … Continued

FOMC Next Year To Look Whole Lot Different From This Year’s — With Repercussions

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

The usual middle-of-the-road approach.  Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony to the Senate yesterday, that is.  (She appears before the House later today.) There were no hints as to if she was ready to vote for a rate … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 7, 2017. 10-year note: On January 26, 10-year yields began dropping after hitting 2.56 percent, lower than the 2.62 percent on December 15 – hence lower highs.  In the meantime, they … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 31, 2017. 10-year note: During his presidential campaign, President Donald Trump openly criticized the Fed’s easy monetary policy.  Indeed, since June 2006, there have only been two 25-basis-point increases in the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012.  In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued

Fed May Have Missed Opportunity – Again!

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

In late 2014/early 2015, U.S. economic data began to either stall or decelerate. Take capacity utilization, for instance.  It peaked at 78.9 percent in November 2014, peaking before tagging 80 percent (Chart 1).  The Fed funds rate was still near … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2016. 10-year note: Regardless how Mr. Mario Draghi, ECB president, describes the €20-billion/month reduction in asset purchases beginning next March until December, it looks like tapering, walks like tapering, and … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2016. 10-year note: From the July 6 (this year) all-time low of 1.34 percent to the Thursday high of 2.49 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 115 basis point in … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2016. 10-year note: Like that, 10-year Treasury yields rallied north of 100 basis points in four and a half months – from the all-time low 1.34 percent on July 6 … Continued

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