After Massive Post-Election Rally, XLF Stalls – Risk Of Double Top/Head-And-Shoulders Completion

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. financials are acting lethargic but they have so far managed to cling on to potentially crucial support. Post-presidential election last November, a fire was lit under U.S. financials. Intraday between November 9 and March 2, XLF, the SPDR financial … Continued

US Dollar Index Under Pressure This Year – Likely Source of Tailwind For U.S. Exports?

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy, Technicals | 0

U.S. real GDP grew 0.7 percent in 1Q17.  This was the weakest quarter since a negative reading three years ago. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts growth snapping back to 4.1 percent in 2Q17. Irrespective of quarterly swings, growth remains … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures — How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 16, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 240k, up 10.9k. Non-commercials nailed it.  In the prior week, they had built net longs to the highest since December 2007, and were rewarded.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 179.9k, down 34.8k. Pre-FOMC decision this week, futures were pricing in 63 percent odds of a 25-basis point hike in June and 60 percent … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 214.6k, up 255.9k. Ten-year Treasury yields did indeed test support-turned-resistance at 2.31 percent this week.  In fact, they rose all the way to 2.35 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 41.3k, down 23.2k. After dropping last week out of a five-month, 2.62 percent-2.31 percent range, 10-year Treasury yields (2.24 percent) proceeded to drop to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 64.5k, up 8.8k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.23 percent) are breaking down. Shortly after post-election backup in yields last November, the 10-year began to so … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 55.8k, down 13.9k. Post-FOMC minutes Wednesday, the S&P 500 large cap index reversed hard, shedding 1.1 percent between 2 pm and 3:30 pm.  This … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 69.4k, down 30.9k. Fed officials are beginning to jawbone – again. Tuesday, Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, said he forecasts two more hikes this year.  … Continued

Interesting Dynamics Between Non-Commercials’ Eurodollar And 10-Year-Note Futures

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias.  In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher.  Are they right? Since … Continued

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