Small-Cap Bulls Defend Support Again, Staring At Tons Of Resistance Above

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Determined not to let go of nearly four-month support, small-cap bulls once again stepped up to the plate Monday. From down 1.4 percent intraday to close the session up 0.2 percent, the Russell 2000 small cap index initially got pushed … Continued

Russell 2000 At Bottom End Of Range – Likely Gives Way

Did U.S. small-caps lead or lag in the past four months?  Depends on the timeframe. Post-November 8 election through the March 1 all-time high, the Russell 2000 small cap index rallied 18.4 percent.  Year-to-date through that record high, it tacked … Continued

Flatter Yield Curve Makes Fed’s Job Harder – Rally In Financials In Limbo

Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture.  This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued

XLE’s Path Of Least Resistance Down — At Least Near Term

Since spot West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed intra-day at $26.05/barrel on February 11th and began to rally, resistance points have fallen one after another.  First went $34-$35, then $40, followed by $42-$43 and then $47-$48 (Chart 1), rallying past both … Continued

Spot Gold Looks Tired – GLD Weekly Naked Call For Premium

In the latest week, non-commercials cut net longs in gold futures by three percent period-over-period to 169,512 contracts.  This was the first weekly reduction in eight weeks (Chart 1).  The prior week’s holdings were the highest since February 3rd last … Continued

Stocks Are Showing Signs Of Strength And Weakness At The Same Time

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After the drubbing stocks took post-ECB disappointment last Thursday, bulls could not have asked for better reaction on Friday. Stocks in general recouped Thursday’s loss, and then some. The S&P 500 index rallied 2.1 percent on Friday (Chart 1), in … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it?  Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 24, 2015.  Change is week-over-week.  (Due to Thanksgiving last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: Chances of the Fed moving next month (FOMC … Continued

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