Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 332.3k, up 32.4k. A 50-basis-point increase in the fed funds rate is pretty much sealed in the May 3-4 meeting. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve … Continued
The sell-side, as well as equity bulls, have high hopes for S&P 500 earnings next year. Even if they come through, the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP will persist. US corporate profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption snapped … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields rallied last week to right underneath the top end of a three-decade-old channel. A breakout has to wait for now. The 13-basis-point jump last week was big, and probably took many by surprise. At one point, yields … Continued
It has been a consistent theme post-Great Recession. U.S. businesses have persistently disappointed when it comes to capital expenditures. It does not look like we will see a trend change anytime soon. The National Federation of Independent Business, representing small … Continued
U.S. corporate profits (adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption) broke a two-quarter downtrend in 2Q15, up 2.4 percent quarter-over-quarter to $2.06 trillion. This followed two consecutive quarterly drops in 4Q14 and 1Q15. A welcome change! The back-to-back drop in … Continued
Divergence between jobs momentum and other macro data points Annual growth in productivity past four years mere 0.68 percent Infrastructure, both structures and equipment, is rapidly aging It has been more or less an enigma. The divergence between various U.S. … Continued