CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 7, 2017. 10-year note: On January 26, 10-year yields began dropping after hitting 2.56 percent, lower than the 2.62 percent on December 15 – hence lower highs.  In the meantime, they … Continued

Major U.S. Indices Clinging On To Support – Medium-Term Risk High

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bears have been rewarded the past couple of weeks, with the S&P 500 large cap index down 1.6 percent.  There is likely more reward medium term, but near-term is a toss-up. In the wake of the 2.5-percent drop on … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 9, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are we beginning to see a chink in central bankers’ armor? Major central banks responded to the financial crisis by aggressively deploying both … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 26, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Two different central-bank meetings, and two different market reactions this week. Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan governor, has a habit of surprising the … Continued

U.S. Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance ↓ – At Least Near Term

Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since.  With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 23, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Negative interest rates have suddenly become the topic du jour.  Last month, Japan waded into negative interest rate policy (NIRP).  This was totally … Continued