Unless Bond Bears Get Motivated By Budget Deficit/Federal Debt/Interest Payments, Bulls Could Find Rally In 10-Year Yields Tempting

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

The 10-year T-yield just poked its head out of 4.30s resistance. Economic data in recent weeks have come in much stronger than expected. Although it is hard to argue the rally in rates will have staying power – unless, of … Continued

Small-Cap Action Foresees Tough 2024

Small-caps continue to act tentative. It is a group of stocks with the most exposure to the domestic economy, and their performance runs counter to the nearly-consensus view that the economy will do just fine next year. Oddly enough, small-cap … Continued

After Last Week’s Ferocious Relief Rally, US Equities Give Out Signs Of Fatigue

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Last week, the major US equity indices rallied strongly – rising mid- to high-single digits. Bulls tried to maintain the momentum this week, but bears are coming out of the woodwork. Odds favor the latter right here and now. The … Continued

Odds Favor Equity Bulls Than Bears At Present

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Both the S&P 500 and VIX closed lower last week. This occurred even as the major US equity indices are at/near decent/major support. Right here and now, odds favor the bulls than the bears. Last week, both the VIX index … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 24, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 563.4k, down 147.4k. The FOMC meets next week. After this, there is only one scheduled meeting left this year – on December 12-13. The … Continued

3Q Tech Earnings Fail To Ignite Buying Interest, But Crucial Dual Support On Nasdaq 100 Unlikely To Yield Right Away

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

In a week in which several tech behemoths reported their September quarter, the Nasdaq 100 is down 3.1 percent through Thursday, falling out of a descending channel. But tech bulls have dual support just underneath – Fibonacci and moving average. … Continued

With Tech Majors Ready To Report, Up To Tech Bulls To Try To Stop Equity Bears Who Made Further Strides Last Week

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bears attacked where they could potentially have last week. With technicals in their favor, they will try to make further gains this week. It is up to the tech bulls to stop that from happening. Major tech outfits are … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 710.7k, down 2.2k. Yet another week and yet another intraday high! Thursday, the 10-year treasury yield reached the highest since July 2007 – a … Continued

Equity Bulls Put Foot Down, Reflex Rally Due; Potential Catalysts Include 3Q Earnings And 10-Year T-Yield

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

With high-single-digit losses in major US stock indices since mid- to late-July, bulls made it clear last week they are putting their foot down. A reflex rally is probable. The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest later this week, and … Continued