US Housing Data Improve; ITB Breaks Out, Possible Breakout Retest N/T Will Be Telling

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Over the past year, housing data – both survey- and activity-based – have gotten better.  Housing starts and sales of new and existing homes have strengthened since the December 2018/January 2019 lows.  ITB just broke out of two-year resistance.  Possible … Continued

ITB Range-Bound Action Continues Amid Conflicting Housing Signals

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U.S. sales of existing homes increased 0.7 percent month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units.  This was the highest since 5.79 million in February 2007 (Chart 1).  Sales had been flat for over a … Continued

Covering ITB Short – For Now

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Next week brings three important housing-related data points: the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index (September), existing home sales (August), and housing starts (August). In July, starts rose 2.1 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.21 million units, … Continued

Rosy Builder Sentiment, Surging Housing Starts, And Rising Supply Of New Homes

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Are U.S. homebuilders getting too aggressive?  Makes you wonder. This month, the National Association of Home Builders housing market index rose three points to 64, to a 10-year high.  There have been times in the past when builder sentiment ran … Continued

ITB Breaks Out, With Improved Price Action, But Worth Waiting For Breakout Retest

ITB, the iShares Home Construction ETF, has broken out.  Support at $26 goes back to May 2013, and was defended several times during late April and early June.  Since late April, ITB had also been trading within an ascending channel.  … Continued

U.S. Home Prices Have More To Thank Supply Than Demand For Rapid Rise

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Of late, momentum in U.S. sales of both new and existing homes Post-bubble burst, price has appreciated much faster than sales improvement Builders express optimism but are cautious in starting construction; inventory well-behaved The upward pressure on U.S. home prices … Continued