ITB Up 33% Post-Election, Bulls Defend Crucial Trend Line Support – Momentum Slowing

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

ITB, the iShares U.S. home construction ETF, has posted seven straight positive months.  The rally began last November – post-election. Momentum is not broken, but is not in acceleration either.  May was essentially unchanged – up 0.25 percent – with … Continued

Amidst Elevated Optimism, Caution Hat Out

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Peak optimism? We are increasingly beginning to hear commentators/observers use that phrase in media interviews, articles as well as on social media.  Among other things, Charts 1 and 2 are probably to blame. In the latest week, Investors Intelligence bulls … Continued

ITB Range-Bound Action Continues Amid Conflicting Housing Signals

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. sales of existing homes increased 0.7 percent month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units.  This was the highest since 5.79 million in February 2007 (Chart 1).  Sales had been flat for over a … Continued

Recent Spurt In Rates Bound To Hurt Housing, If Sustained — Likely Not Sustainable

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

U.S. sales of homes – both new and existing – are at/near cycle highs.  This amidst personal incomes that are struggling to rise with surging home prices.  Against this background comes the recent backup in mortgage rates, particularly post-Trump victory.  … Continued

ITB Loses Three-Year Support; Bounce Possible, But Needs To Stabilize First

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. household real estate has come a long way. Back in 2Q06, the market value of U.S. household real estate peaked at $22.7 trillion, before coming under sustained pressure after the bubble burst.  Amazingly, in the next five years, it … Continued

Covering ITB Short – For Now

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Next week brings three important housing-related data points: the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index (September), existing home sales (August), and housing starts (August). In July, starts rose 2.1 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.21 million units, … Continued

Sales Of New And Existing Homes Break Out – Genuine Or False?

posted in: Economy | 0

There probably is an air of excitement among U.S. housing bulls – particularly the technically oriented ones.  Sales of both new and existing homes have broken out of recent ranges. In June, new homes rose 3.5 percent month-over-month to a … Continued

ITB Rallies 14% In 2 Weeks For Range Breakout, Gives Out Signs Of Fatigue

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Next week’s economic calendar is housing-heavy. Monday brings the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index for July, Tuesday housing starts for June, and Thursday existing home sales for June. Builder sentiment remained stuck at 58 for four months through May, before … Continued

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