FOMC Next Year To Look Whole Lot Different From This Year’s — With Repercussions

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

The usual middle-of-the-road approach.  Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony to the Senate yesterday, that is.  (She appears before the House later today.) There were no hints as to if she was ready to vote for a rate … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 7, 2017. 10-year note: On January 26, 10-year yields began dropping after hitting 2.56 percent, lower than the 2.62 percent on December 15 – hence lower highs.  In the meantime, they … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 14, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Fed Chair Janet Yellen during her mid-week Humphrey-Hawkins testimony reiterated her desire to hike interest rates later this year, if data cooperate.  On … Continued

Weekly Cash-Secured Put On TLT

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

As expected, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony yesterday, reiterated what she, and other Fed officials, have been saying for a while.  They are data dependent, and if data cooperate, a rate hike is coming later this year.  … Continued

Dollar seems finally ready to come under pressure

Contrary message from U.S. dollar and bonds as to prospects for interest-rate hike by Fed Latest Humphrey-Hawkins testimony shows Chair Janet Yellen leaning dovish Hedge funds are neck-deep in bullish dollar bets, expecting higher rates Currency and bond markets are … Continued

Chair Yellen’s valuation concerns apt, as SPX operating earnings have probably peaked

posted in: Equities | 0

Chair Yellen brings up issue of “elevated” P/E and P/S ratios In 1996 and 2014, markets ignored Fed chiefs’ valuation warnings Tight R between SPX and operating earnings, which probably peaked in 3Q14 One of the nuggets in Federal Reserve … Continued