Major Indices Face Moving-Average, Fibonacci Resistance – Money-Market Funds Hold Key

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices are facing moving-average as well as Fibonacci resistance.  The path of least resistance is down near term, with decent support not too far away.  For this to hold, money-market funds hold the key. Since peaking at … Continued

Soothing Words From Powell Help Stocks – Momentum Lies With Bulls For Now

Fundamentals are still a suspect, but US stocks were treated with soothing comments from Fed chief last week.  Bulls have the ball, but bears are likely to show up at $260 on SPY. Speaking at the American Economic Association’s annual … Continued

Odds Favor Shorts Near Term If S&P 500 Rallies To 2800+

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Post-Powell’s supposed dovish switch last week, equity bulls spent lots of energy to rally the S&P 500 within less than two points of the 200-day.  If the trade-tariff truce the US and China reached over the weekend in Argentina is … Continued

Fed Giveth, Fed Taketh Away?

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Seven weeks of sideways action on the S&P 500 large cap index has been resolved.  Last Friday, the index dropped 2.5 percent, for a weekly drop of 2.4 percent.  This comes on the heels of an important breakout in July. … Continued

Momentum Continues In U.S. Equities, With VIX:VXV Continuing To Flash Caution

Are we seeing a classic ‘stocks turn ahead of fundamentals’ phenomenon? U.S. equities in general bottomed on February 11th after a brutal sell-off in January.  From late-December 2015 highs through the afore-mentioned low, the S&P 500 index dropped 13 percent … Continued

Big Stock Move Upon Us? Why Profits/Buybacks Likely Hold Key

Is the S&P 500 index (2035.94) resting or struggling at resistance? Either way, the rather lethargic action the past few sessions is not completely out of the ordinary given the move it has had off February 11th lows.  From low … Continued

U.S. Inventory Remains Elevated, With Some Signs It Is Getting Worked Off

posted in: Economy | 0

At the start of the year, real GDP in the U.S. was expected to grow at three percent or better this year.  Actual numbers are falling short – substantially.  In the first three quarters, growth has been on a sub-two-percent … Continued

Consumers Stash Away Cash = Inventory Situation Worsens

posted in: Economy | 0

U.S. personal incomes grow in April, but consumers stash away cash In recent months/quarters, inventories have been growing faster than orders ISM Manufacturing shows small improvement in order-inventory mismatch in May The importance of U.S. consumers cannot be stressed enough … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 21, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are bond vigilantes expecting a hawkish tone from the FOMC next week?  The latter meets on 28-29.  For the most part, macro data … Continued