Small-Cap Bulls Defend Support Again, Staring At Tons Of Resistance Above

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Determined not to let go of nearly four-month support, small-cap bulls once again stepped up to the plate Monday. From down 1.4 percent intraday to close the session up 0.2 percent, the Russell 2000 small cap index initially got pushed … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued

Russell 2000 At Bottom End Of Range – Likely Gives Way

Did U.S. small-caps lead or lag in the past four months?  Depends on the timeframe. Post-November 8 election through the March 1 all-time high, the Russell 2000 small cap index rallied 18.4 percent.  Year-to-date through that record high, it tacked … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 194.4k, down 104.1k. Equities up. Gold up.  The US dollar index down.  Ten-year Treasury yields down.  This is how markets reacted to Wednesday’s FOMC … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 7, 2017. 10-year note: The Janet Yellen-led Fed – and the one led by her predecessor Ben Bernanke – believe in the wealth effect.  Since the financial crisis, anytime equities came … Continued

As Good As It Gets?

Chart 1 shows decent relationship between year-over-year change in the S&P 500 large cap index and the ISM manufacturing index. U.S. manufacturing activity has picked up – from 49.4 last August to 57.5 in February.  The 8.3-point six-month jump is … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 28, 2017. 10-year note: By Friday last week, fed funds futures were putting the odds of a rate hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting (March 14-15) at 34 percent.  By Monday, … Continued

Dow On Pace To Creating History, Even As Sources Of Tailwind Stretched

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The Dow Industrials is on pace to creating history this week.  Last Friday, it rose for 11 sessions in a row, for a cumulative gain of 3.8 percent.  The longest streak was recorded in January 1987 when it rallied 11 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 21, 2017. 10-year note: Are we in for a March shock? Post-FOMC minutes on Wednesday, fed funds futures were pricing in a 32-percent chance of a rate hike in the March … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 14, 2017. 10-year note: On February 15, 10-year yields hit 2.52 percent before retreating.  That high tagged a declining trend line from December 15 when yields hit 2.62 percent intraday.  This … Continued

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