The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 29, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The back and forth between the two camps within the FOMC continues. Last week, several members used public forums to express hawkish opinion … Continued
“Manufacturing and net exports have continued to be hard hit by slow global growth and the significant appreciation of the dollar since 2014… Low oil prices have also resulted in large-scale layoffs in the energy sector and adverse spillovers to … Continued
Negative interest rates have been in the headlines for a while now. Since Janet Yellen’s, Fed chair, Congressional testimony last week, it has been doing so with increasing frequency. Does the Fed even have the legal authority to use negative … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Two important developments took place this week in central banking. First, the Fed. This week’s FOMC meeting was a non-event. No interest-rate decision … Continued
Later today, markets will learn if, when it comes to the so-called Fed put, it is game as usual or winds of change are beginning to blow. The Fed put refers to a practice of reducing interest rates to deal … Continued
Today is one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings in a long time, if not ever. Markets expect a hike. The Fed has convinced them of that. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 83-percent chance of a hike. The … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it? Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued
It can potentially be a momentous day. December 16th, that is. That is when the Fed would be completing its two-day FOMC meeting – this year’s last – and decide whether or not to raise interest rates. The last time … Continued
The FOMC minutes for the October 27-28 meeting released the day before have been perceived by the markets as a definite signal that the Fed is ready to move in December. The FOMC meets on December 14-15. Post-release of the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 3, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Three prominent Fed officials tried to convince the markets this week that December was in play in earnest. Testifying before the House Financial … Continued