Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 83.7k, up 39.4k. No one said a breakout of this significance would be easy. Last week, 10-year yields closed right underneath a three-decade-old descending … Continued
After the drubbing stocks took post-ECB disappointment last Thursday, bulls could not have asked for better reaction on Friday. Stocks in general recouped Thursday’s loss, and then some. The S&P 500 index rallied 2.1 percent on Friday (Chart 1), in … Continued
Turns out short interest was indeed a tailwind for stocks in the two weeks ended October 15th. On SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, short interest declined 10.6 percent, to 332.1 million (Chart 1). The ETF rallied 5.6 percent during … Continued
Back in early August, China engineered a fall in the yuan. Soon followed investor hand-wringing over whether or not it would be selling its Treasury holdings in order to stabilize the currency. The Chinese economy is slowing, and capital outflows … Continued
Are things really bad out there? Without a doubt, there is no shortage of things to worry about. From slowdown in China to volatility in emerging markets to continued deceleration in the global economy to the Fed possibly committing a … Continued
2134.72. That is the all-time record the S&P 500 Index (1948.86) notched on May 20. It is possible in the annals of stock market history this high will be viewed with the same level of trepidation/respect as 1553.11 (March 2000 … Continued
Late last year as the Federal Reserve was unwinding quantitative easing (QE), there was suspense in the air as to how this might impact U.S. stocks. Bulls argued QE was never a factor in stocks’ surge, rather earnings were. Bears … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 23, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Yields pushed up nearly 21 basis points for the week. Sales of both new and existing homes did well in May (even though … Continued
Central banks’ increasing role in deciding fate of stocks R between S&P and Shanghai index breaks down due to CB activism N/T direction for U.S. stocks look promising but not M/T, as QE morphine is lacking Did U.S. stocks go … Continued
Margin debt jumps $20bn in Feb to nearly match all-time high a year ago Interesting, tight correlation between margin debt and U.S. banks’ C&I loans Rise in inventories-to-sales ratio probably suggests imminent slowdown in C&I loans NYSE margin debt shot … Continued