Amidst Elevated Optimism, Caution Hat Out

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Peak optimism? We are increasingly beginning to hear commentators/observers use that phrase in media interviews, articles as well as on social media.  Among other things, Charts 1 and 2 are probably to blame. In the latest week, Investors Intelligence bulls … Continued

ITB Range-Bound Action Continues Amid Conflicting Housing Signals

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. sales of existing homes increased 0.7 percent month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units.  This was the highest since 5.79 million in February 2007 (Chart 1).  Sales had been flat for over a … Continued

ITB Loses Three-Year Support; Bounce Possible, But Needs To Stabilize First

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. household real estate has come a long way. Back in 2Q06, the market value of U.S. household real estate peaked at $22.7 trillion, before coming under sustained pressure after the bubble burst.  Amazingly, in the next five years, it … Continued

Covering ITB Short – For Now

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Next week brings three important housing-related data points: the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index (September), existing home sales (August), and housing starts (August). In July, starts rose 2.1 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.21 million units, … Continued

Sales Of New And Existing Homes Break Out – Genuine Or False?

posted in: Economy | 0

There probably is an air of excitement among U.S. housing bulls – particularly the technically oriented ones.  Sales of both new and existing homes have broken out of recent ranges. In June, new homes rose 3.5 percent month-over-month to a … Continued

ITB Rallies 14% In 2 Weeks For Range Breakout, Gives Out Signs Of Fatigue

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Next week’s economic calendar is housing-heavy. Monday brings the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index for July, Tuesday housing starts for June, and Thursday existing home sales for June. Builder sentiment remained stuck at 58 for four months through May, before … Continued

ITB Breaks Out, With Improved Price Action, But Worth Waiting For Breakout Retest

ITB, the iShares Home Construction ETF, has broken out.  Support at $26 goes back to May 2013, and was defended several times during late April and early June.  Since late April, ITB had also been trading within an ascending channel.  … Continued