Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 285.1k, up 111k. After back-to-back weekly spinning tops in 10-year treasury rates in the last two weeks, bond bears (on price) defended 1.86 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 15, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 174.1k, down 27.8k. Inflation has persisted much longer and broadened to more industries than the Fed initially – and stubbornly – expected. Benchmark interest … Continued
The 10-year treasury yield ended with a weekly shooting star last week, briefly rising above two percent. Only about two and a half months ago, rates were 1.34 percent. The 10-year may be ready to unwind at least some of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 201.9k, down 73k. The minutes for the January 25-26 meeting are scheduled for next Wednesday. This was the year’s first FOMC meeting, during which … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 274.9k, up 10.2k. Last Wednesday when the FOMC concluded its meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced there was “quite a bit of room” … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 25, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 264.7k, down 6.8k. Jerome Powell, Fed chairman, has a task at hand – to bring inflation, the likes of which has not been seen … Continued
Major US equity indices have a rough start to 2022. From their recent highs to Monday’s lows, they have all suffered double-digit percent declines, with small-caps tumbling more than 20 percent. Amidst this rout, both Monday and Tuesday produced potentially … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 18, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 271.4k, down 72.4k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the year’s first scheduled meeting, and seven more remain after this. Members will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 11, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 343.8k, up 66.9k. Last week, the 10-year treasury yield closed right at 1.77 percent, which was the high from last March. Since that peak, … Continued
Last week’s hawkish FOMC minutes sent stocks lower. The Fed not only is accelerating the recently-begun tapering of bond purchases but also getting ready to hike rates. Chances are it will also begin to shrink its bloated balance sheet in … Continued