S&P 500’s Rejection At May 2015 Downtrend Line Important Development

The S&P 500 large cap index lost 1.3 percent last week.  Intra-day, off the April 20th high through last Friday’s low, it is now down 2.8 percent.  The index retreated after unsuccessfully trying to break out of a declining trend … Continued

Scenario In Which U.S. M2 Money Velocity Continues Lower

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

If a chart gets retweeted 86 times, it is safe to say that the topic in question has touched a nerve in Twitter finance. The chart above had that distinction.  The topic it highlighted thus deserves a post.  So here … Continued

Elevated Price To Sales Ratio, Plus Its Repercussions

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

The price to sales ratio is an important valuation tool that many investors swear by. The market cap to GDP ratio – essentially a ratio of price to sales – supposedly is a favorite indicator of Warren Buffet. On this … Continued

Real Reason Why Tightening Cycle — Regardless When It Begins — Will Be Shallow

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Last week when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met, market participants were divided as to whether or not the Fed would raise rates.  Most economists expected a hike, as did the short end of the yield curve; two-year Treasury … Continued

In Weak Global Economy, Strong Dollar Not Conducive To U.S. Exports

posted in: Currency, Economy | 0

U.S. exports have been under pressure since they peaked at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.36 trillion in 3Q14; 2Q15 was $2.28 trillion.  As a percent of nominal GDP, exports’ share in 2Q15 was a full percentage point lower … Continued

SPX Earnings Estimates For 2015 Get Reality Dose, How Realistic Are 2016?

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

The other day, Goldman Sachs took a sharp knife to its earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. It cut 2015 estimates from previous $122 to $114.  In 2014, these companies earned $113 in operating earnings.  If Goldman is right, we … Continued

FOMC may signal rate-hike plans pushed back

posted in: Commodities, Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

As FOMC meets, markets will be looking for clues on rate-hike timing Consensus, which had been betting on mid-year hike, vacillating of late Lower-than-expected inflation, strong dollar excuses for Fed not to move The Federal Open Market Committee begins its … Continued

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