Fed’s Hawkish Desire Versus Uncooperative Macro Data

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May.  Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued

Dismal U.S. Capex Scene Continues — Not Likely To Change Anytime Soon

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

U.S. corporate capital expenditures have been lackluster.  That is an understatement. As a percent of real GDP in 3Q15, non-residential fixed investment comprised 12.8 percent.  The post-Great Recession high of 12.9 percent was recorded in each of the three quarters … Continued

Many Reasons For Sluggish U.S. Capex — Inventory Being Latest

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

It has been a consistent theme post-Great Recession.  U.S. businesses have persistently disappointed when it comes to capital expenditures.  It does not look like we will see a trend change anytime soon. The National Federation of Independent Business, representing small … Continued

Consumers Stash Away Cash = Inventory Situation Worsens

posted in: Economy | 0

U.S. personal incomes grow in April, but consumers stash away cash In recent months/quarters, inventories have been growing faster than orders ISM Manufacturing shows small improvement in order-inventory mismatch in May The importance of U.S. consumers cannot be stressed enough … Continued

U.S. Biz Capex Proxy Rises For 2nd Straight Month, But Tough Y/Y Comparisons Ahead

posted in: Economy | 0

2nd straight M/M rise in orders for U.S. business capX proxy in April For several months beginning June, hurdle rate quite high for Y/Y growth Six years into expansion, ZIRP probably not confidence booster among CEOs Phew! A sigh of … Continued

U.S. Dollar Under Pressure: What’s Next And How To Trade It

A stronger U.S. dollar finally caused some disturbance with U.S. corporations, especially multinationals.  While reporting March-quarter earnings, one after another singled out the dollar for causing top-line shortfall. From trough to peak between last May and March this year, the … Continued

First m/m rise in six months in orders for U.S. business capX proxy — blip or trend?

posted in: Economy | 0

The U.S. factory report out yesterday has ignited a ray of hope. Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft (proxy for business capital expenditures) in particular were revised higher.  March went from $68.19 billion to $68.71 billion, and February from $68.54 … Continued

Dynamics between orders, inventories and C&I loans

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capital expenditures – continue to lose momentum.  Year-over-year growth dipped in the negative territory for the first time since January 2014.  One month does not a trend make, but there … Continued

Peer into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 24, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After what these traders heard out of the FOMC last week, they decided to step on the accelerator.  Net shorts went up 67 … Continued