Wages dynamics in U.S. economy, and why productivity is crucial

posted in: Economy | 0

U.S. wages stuck in mud, more so for supervised employees than for supervisory ECI for private sector has been trending higher since 1Q14; sustainable? Productivity crucial for employers’ ability to absorb wage hikes If there is one consistency in the … Continued

U.S. Dollar Under Pressure: What’s Next And How To Trade It

A stronger U.S. dollar finally caused some disturbance with U.S. corporations, especially multinationals.  While reporting March-quarter earnings, one after another singled out the dollar for causing top-line shortfall. From trough to peak between last May and March this year, the … Continued

Can U.S. dollar become victim of its own success?

Dollar has benefited from growth/interest rate differential among countries Recent spurt of weak U.S. data has pushed back rate-hike expectations to late 15 Dollar index retreats after approaching crucial Fib retracement; other levels to watch In 2014, the U.S. economy … Continued

Peer into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 24, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After what these traders heard out of the FOMC last week, they decided to step on the accelerator.  Net shorts went up 67 … Continued

Short interest dynamics between NYSE and Nasdaq, and in SMH and IBB

posted in: Equities | 0

NYSE short interest rises to match mid-Oct highs, diverges from Nasdaq Within Nasdaq, shorts aggressive in pure tech, but less so in biotech Relatively low short interest on IBB probably does not help longs It is getting a little difficult … Continued

R b/w average hourly earnings and NFIB comp plans started breaking down a year ago

posted in: Economy | 0

Below is one of the charts often used – this blog including – to validate expectations for imminent upward pressure on U.S. wages.  It shows the correlation between year-over-year change in average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees and … Continued

Bond vigilantes vs. Fed: Who is calling whose bluff and where it might lead

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy, Technicals | 0

U.S. bond market and Fed lock horns as relates to trajectory of short rates Fed continues to drop hints it is ready to lift rates off near-zero levels Should that come to pass, it has potential to help vigilantes’ case … Continued

Energy job cuts in Jan-Feb >36k; mining-and-logging job openings plunge from Oct 14 high

posted in: Economy | 0

Oil-and-extraction jobs are just beginning to come under pressure More on the way as mining-and-logging job openings crater In Jan and Feb, energy job-cut announcements >36k Since crude oil peaked in the middle of last year, investor attention has been … Continued

Did NFIB just pour cold water on NFP wages enthusiasm?

posted in: Economy | 0

Jan pickup in U.S. average hourly wages after Dec drop welcome relief Nevertheless, NFIB members’ comp plans tumble big time in January Loss of high-paying oil jobs will put downward pressure on wages One of the reasons January’s employment report … Continued