Mid- And Small-Caps Lag Large-Caps From Oct ’22 Lows, But Neck And Neck From ’23 Lows; Mid-Caps At Crucial Juncture Technically

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With the 4Q earnings season nearly over, large-caps were in the black last year, while mid- and small-caps were in the red. The latter two have underperformed the large-caps from Oct ’22 lows but are running neck and neck from … Continued

Russell 2000 Wins Back 1800, But Too Soon To Declare Trend Change Given Fed’s Battle With Inflation And Resolve To Hurt Economy If Needed

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

After many attempts, the Russell 2000 won back 1800 last week. But it is too soon to declare a trend change. A bigger hurdle lies at 1900. The Fed is as determined as ever to cool inflation and hurt the … Continued

Near-Term, In FOMC Week, Reduced Volatility Likely To Help Equity Bulls; Medium- To Long-Term, No Fed Pivot Forthcoming

Medium- to long-term, Fed pivot-yearning equity bulls could be setting themselves up for disappointment given the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer and the trajectory of the US economy and/or corporate earnings. Near-term, in an FOMC week, a … Continued

Week Could Be Volatile, But Stocks Likely Will Try To Pick Up Where They Left Off Last Week

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Ahead of a crucial week in which the FOMC meets and the top six US companies report, large-cap equity indices broke out to new highs last week. The knock on this is that rangebound small-caps are yet to achieve that … Continued

SPY Shorts With M/T Focus Have Option To Sell Weekly Puts

Bulls put foot down on major US equity indices last week.  They have the ball near term.  Shorts with medium-term focus can sell weekly puts to raise the short price. The greenback acts strong.  The US dollar index (95.98) hit … Continued

Amid Signs Of Fatigue, Potentially Bullish ‘What If’ For US Stocks

Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue.  The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87.  The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued

Shortly After Crossing 3%, 10-Year T-Yield Gives out Signs Of Fatigue – TLT Short Put

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

For first time in over four years, the 10-year Treasury rate surpasses three percent, only to raise the possibility that this is as high as it is going to go at least in the short term. After several quarters of … Continued

Manufacturing, Small-Business/Consumer Optimism At Multi-Year High – Inventories Worth Close Watch

posted in: Economy | 0

After coming under pressure for months, the ratio of inventories to sales has slightly risen since bottoming last November.  It is worth watching. US real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9 percent in 4Q17.  This followed growth of 3.2 percent in … Continued