Unable to push through resistance, major US equity indices took a drubbing in recent weeks. Mid- to long-term, more downward pressure is probable. Near-term, it is looking like a toss-up between bulls and bears. The S&P 500 last week suffered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 362k, down 144.8k. Last October, the 10-year treasury yield peaked at five percent, having rallied from 3.25 percent in April. In the week to … Continued
From last month’s record highs, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are down just under three percent and have now approached the 50-day, which has not been lost since last October when they bottomed. Given that the trendline support … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 506.9k, down 63.1k. In the past month, the 10-year treasury yield went from 4.04 percent on March 8th to Thursday’s high of 4.59 percent. … Continued
The earnings season is upon us. The bar is low. With the S&P 500 sideways in recent weeks after a massive rally since last October, better results can help the index push through short-term resistance, but building on the gains … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 570k, down 8.4k. Minutes for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting are due out Wednesday. At this point, no one probably cares what the members … Continued
It is probable US households’ equity allocation set a new high last quarter. Stocks have relentlessly rallied for over five months – without so much of a correction. With investor sentiment looking frothy, bulls are increasingly running out of tailwinds … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 578.3k, up 4.3k. Well, looks like a battle of sorts is brewing within the FOMC. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has … Continued
Equity bears came up short last week, unable to take benefit of an opportunity to put the bulls on the defensive. Momentum remains with the bulls. With the S&P 500 having already rallied 28 percent from last October’s low, several … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 574k, down 29.5k. It was almost as if Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, did not want equities to go lower. That is the feeling … Continued