Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 17, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 145.2k, up 36.4k. Next week is the annual Jackson Hole symposium, where Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, will speak on “the economic outlook.” It … Continued
The S&P 500 is probably headed for a test of the 50-day, which is merely 1.5 percent away. Should the average be breached, it will have come at a seasonally tough period and at a time when earnings look very … Continued
VIX recently broke a month-and-a-half rising trend line, subsequently coming under more pressure. In the right circumstances for volatility bears, the index could drop more near term, but a longer-term trend line support is unlikely to break. On June 29, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 10, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 108.8k, up 21.1k. FOMC minutes for the July 27-28 meeting are due out on Wednesday. In that meeting, it was stated that progress has … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 3, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 87.7k, down 76.8k. A total of 5.7 million and counting. That is the number of non-farm jobs needed to match the pre-pandemic high of … Continued
Equal-Weighted Indexes pertaining to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out, although not decisively. Their market cap-weighted cousins could soon follow them. Should that happen, it is important to consider the vigor with which that happens. Equal-weighted indexes … Continued
S&P 500 earnings are beating consensus estimates by a wide margin. Stocks, which had rallied massively into the season, are only trudging higher. Near term, they are likely to struggle to find positive catalysts. The 50-day, which is merely 2.5 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 27, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 164.5k, up 75.6k. This week’s FOMC meeting was big yawn except for one thing. Members obviously left the fed funds rate at the current … Continued
Ahead of a crucial week in which the FOMC meets and the top six US companies report, large-cap equity indices broke out to new highs last week. The knock on this is that rangebound small-caps are yet to achieve that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 20, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 88.9k, up 32.9k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This is the year’s fifth policy meeting, and three more remain. A lot has happened since … Continued